Article from the Christian Science Monitor suggesting little to no chance of civil war. This gives you hope. But it’s an argument that rests on thin ice.
“But “then” was an extreme version of “now,” and the results of its extremity may hold lessons for today. In the 1850s provocative action begat more provocative action, creating and then feeding a whirlwind that ended in fighting. National politics became so dysfunctional it broke down the public consensus that underlay republican governance.”
It’s hard to see how it was worse then. Having said that it’s a difficult analogy. In the first civil war the fighting was preceded by secession. This is not normally the case in civil wars. There were also two large armies against each other, both backed by governments.
Historically, civil wars start small with violence in the streets. Then rapidly escalate.
Better analogy would be the Yugoslav civil war or Lebanese civil war of the mid 70s.
Even the civil war in Greece in the 1940s offers closer parallels.