Updating the chance of another civil war.

We are creeping up in the orange range and approaching the red range.

What this means is that we are in a dangerous position. At 53% a single event (an assassination, a big downturn in the economy, or a violent protest getting out of hand) could tip us into the red or even the black range

With the election drawing closer we’ll be updating a little more frequently. Over the next few weeks there isn’t much chance of the number coming down.

This is not intended to be alarmist, just historical fact. During elections emotions (and tensions) are of course going to be running a bit higher.

The comments of a week ago by Clinton and Holder, coupled with attacks on two Minnesota Republicans and the violence between Proud Boys and Antifa in New York are adding to the discontent.

 

October 19th
Factor Possible Points Current Points
Division in the nation 5 5
Is there a path to fix this divide? 10 8
Righteous indignation 15 12
Does at least one side see a path to victory 5 5
Do the people of the nation believe it is likely? 5 3
How is the economy and standard of living? 10 2
Is there a clear geographic divide? 5 4
Is there already violence? 5 2
Have the violent parties lost respect for law and enforcement? 10 3
Is there main street support for either or both of the violent parties? 5 2
Are the politicians using threat of war for political purposes? 10 4
Is there a religious divide 10 1
Is there fighting over natural resources 5 1
Totals 100 52
Multiplier factor 52.52

 

 

The new addition here is the Multiplier factor. We have added this because a few people have noted that the number of factors is so high. Out of all ten only three are not concerning.  The other thing we are using this for is simply context. Currently we are in election season, so perhaps this is the reason the rhetoric has ramped up.

 

Preparation at this point is a good idea:

Although a bug out plan is probably not necessary, it would make sense to start preparing for the worst. The nation is highly divided and attacks on politicians and between protestors is becoming more common. We have already had attempted murder of Republican congressional representatives and more is likely to come.

Having a few weeks of food and water is always a good idea in case of natural disaster. Right now it would be irresponsible not to prepare for civil unrest. The radical elements on both sides do not appear to be backing down and the attacks on politicians are becoming more frequent.

Another incident like the baseball practice shootings could tip the nation quickly towards more wide spread violence.

_____________________________________

Previous week:

As of October 12th 2018 we have the chance of civil war at 51%

October 12th update
Factor Possible Points Current Points
Division in the nation 5 5
Is there a path to fix this divide? 10 8
Righteous indignation 15 12
Does at least one side see a path to victory 5 5
Do the people of the nation believe it is likely? 5 3
How is the economy and standard of living? 10 2
Is there a clear geographic divide? 5 4
Is there already violence? 5 2
Have the violent parties lost respect for law and enforcement? 10 3
Is there main street support for either or both of the violent parties? 5 2
Are the politicians using threat of war for political purposes? 10 3
Is there a religious divide 10 1
Is there fighting over natural resources 5 1
Totals 100 51

 

While we had hoped that the winding down of the Kavanaugh hearings would result in a lowering of the odds, recent comments from Hillary Clinton and Eric Holder have instead moved the needle closer to civil unrest or civil war.

Remember!

It could be much worse. We believe the path the nation is on will more likely lead to civil war than not at this point. But there is time to change course.

 

We will be looking at the algorithm in further detail next week and are bringing in an additional analyst from the left to make sure we keep the bias out of this as much as possible.

We are always looking for people to participate in a rolling poll as well.

Just contact us via email at anothercivilwar@gmail.com

You will be emailed monthly to ask just a few short questions. Please include your political leaning and as much social support for your position as is possible or that you feel comfortable with. We must be able to verify that you either left, right or moderate and that you are politically engaged.