Updating the chance of another civil war. May 3rd 2019
The Mueller report failed to deliver solid evidence of collusion between president Trump and the Russians. Despite this the Democrats continue to investigate.
Caravans continue across the border and the nation is now starting to believe it is a problem. Yet no compromise appears to be anywhere on the horizon.
We still have hope, but the bridge to compromise gets further away every day.
The good news is, we are still not at 60%. That is the range where protests and violence become common.
Preparation at this point is a good idea:
Although a bug out plan is probably not necessary, it would make sense to start preparing for the worst. The nation is highly divided and attacks on politicians and between protestors is becoming more common. We have already had attempted murder of Republican congressional representatives and more is likely to come.
Having a few weeks of food and water is always a good idea in case of natural disaster. Right now it would be irresponsible not to prepare for civil unrest. The radical elements on both sides do not appear to be backing down and the attacks on politicians are becoming more frequent.
Another incident like the baseball practice shootings could tip the nation quickly towards more wide spread violence.
As of October 12th 2018 we have the chance of civil war at 51%
|October 12th update|
|Factor||Possible Points||Current Points|
|Division in the nation||5||5|
|Is there a path to fix this divide?||10||8|
|Does at least one side see a path to victory||5||5|
|Do the people of the nation believe it is likely?||5||3|
|How is the economy and standard of living?||10||2|
|Is there a clear geographic divide?||5||4|
|Is there already violence?||5||2|
|Have the violent parties lost respect for law and enforcement?||10||3|
|Is there main street support for either or both of the violent parties?||5||2|
|Are the politicians using threat of war for political purposes?||10||3|
|Is there a religious divide||10||1|
|Is there fighting over natural resources||5||1|
While we had hoped that the winding down of the Kavanaugh hearings would result in a lowering of the odds, recent comments from Hillary Clinton and Eric Holder have instead moved the needle closer to civil unrest or civil war.
It could be much worse. We believe the path the nation is on will more likely lead to civil war than not at this point. But there is time to change course.
We will be looking at the algorithm in further detail next week and are bringing in an additional analyst from the left to make sure we keep the bias out of this as much as possible.
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