We are now at 55%
After the election things settled down pretty quickly. That’s good news. We are still very divided and in the dangerous zone, but it’s better than it was a few weeks ago.
France on the other hand? They have clearly passed the 60% mark. The interesting thing is the violence and rioting in France are almost part of the culture. But when Macron caved on energy taxes you would have assumed the protests would have stopped. So far, it looks like they will continue. This tells us there are bigger issues and this won’t be over quickly.
For a break-down of the chance in the United States, and really any nation, see below.
0%-20%. This is where nations are most of the time. There is little chance of civil unrest. It would take some wild series of events to start a civil war. Highly unlikely.
20%-40% The nation is divided. There is a danger that things could spiral out of control. For the most part the politicians are getting along and compromise is still the norm. Protests are peaceful and rare or at least not common. While a single even could change this overnight, it isn’t expected. Think the first French civil war, or the civil war in Greece in 1946. There was division, but no one thought civil war was likely.
40%-60% The nation is very divided. Politicians are in the fight, but not yet calling for violence. Protests are ubiquitous and often violent. Citizens are talking about civil war, but not preparing. Compromises are few and far between. When we say people are not preparing we believe that is as it should be. Thought there is a better chance than not, civil war is still not anywhere near a certainty. But at this point the politicians, the news media and the cultural drivers must address the rhetoric and begin to compromise. The higher the number in this range the more critical. The nation may be in a cold civil war. This means boycotts of businesses owned or operated by the opposition. Shunning and separation of people opposed to our political view is also rampant. The political discourse is spilling into day to day conversations.
60%-80% In this range you should be preparing. The respect for the rule of law is fading or non-existent. Trust in government and government institutions is falling fast. Protests are constant and violent. Random killings or violence occurs for political reasons. Travel is somewhat restricted because of the violence or protests. Citizens see the danger and prepare to move, fight or stay and hold their ground.
80% and higher. This is near the end. Although it may not be acknowledged, civil war has begun. Fighting between large groups and often death is a result. If you are in a city and you are not fighting, you should be moving. The economy is also falling as a result of the violence. Politicians are taking a side and supporting the violence to support their party or cause. It is very important to note that in civil war there may not be a big issue that causes it. Civil wars can be just about one group against the other. The righteous indignation is such that policies will change from day to day. If my enemy is for it, I must be against it.