With the impeachment in the House of President Trump the chance of a second civil war is now higher than ever.
The Democrats have regressed to the 16th century start chamber and there is simply no other way to look at this.
The trial was conducted in secret. The accused was not permitted to call his own witnesses. And the verdict was delivered along party lines. Some journalists are comparing this impeachment to that of Bill Clinton. CNN’s Jake Tapper suggested that the difference was Clinton admitted he was wrong and was contrite.
This is completely false. Bill Clinton’s investigation took years, not weeks. It was done by an independent prosecutor and there was bi-partisan support both for the investigation and the impeachment.
I have always maintained that for chances of civil war to rise above 60% it would mean that politicians were now acknowledging the risk, or even suggesting it may be necessary.
The President of the United States acknowledged. The media and the Democrats believed that this was hyperbole and irresponsible. I would suggest it was one of the few responsible statements. It was a warning and one that is long overdue.
Now what? I believe that the next couple of months leading into the 2020 election things will get worse. Because it is a presidential election year, it’s going to be exceedingly difficult for the Democrats to walk this back. But, as the general election gets closer, I am almost certain you’ll see a coordinated effort by the media and the Democrats to do just that.
Here is what I see happening:
Just prior to the election in November the media will start a soft narrative that maybe the Democrats went to far. To protect the eventual nominee and remove the topic from the debate the Democrats will agree. They will admit they went a little too far. But then they will say they had no choice.
Democrats and their friends in the media will say that , yes, Trump should not have been removed or even impeached. But he should have been censored and his behavior is splitting the nation.
This election will not be about policy. It will be about coming together. The Democrats will suggest and media will concur, that things are good economically, but that it is dangerous to have Trump as president. Expect some of the never Trump Republicans to join them.
It will of course all be a farce. But many will buy into it.
After the election, I expect things to get bad. Perhaps very bad.
If Trump wins, the left will blame Russia or Ukraine.
If Trump loses, the right will be able to make a case that the media helped the Democrats and the election is illegitimate.
2021 will be the dangerous year.