This is from FP.com and is a really good article on the rising tensions with China and the possibility or reality of another Cold War, only this time with China.
It’s interesting from a couple of different perspectives historically. When the Chinese market first opened to the Western World in the early 1800s wars, or violent skirmishes happened quickly. China has always been a bit of an oddity even in the Asian Pacific. While Tea and Heroin flowed back and forth for decades the modernization of China came much later. But once that began trade blossomed and it’s hard to argue that the world became a better place for it.
The carrot at the end of the stick has always been the sheer size of the Chinese population. The thinking has been for two hundred years that if we can get access to those markets, our own economies will boom. The problem of course has always been that it’s hard to to get a billion people into the middle class. While we’ve been trying to do it since the 70s, the trade gap has never narrowed. Only grown.
If we destroy our own middle class in the process of creating a Chinese middle class it’s hard to see how we will ever be able to call this a success. It has long been my opinion that we can’t do it all. The United States cannot have low tariffs, high immigration, and send millions of jobs to China and expect to grow the middle class or, just as importantly, increase the quality of life of the existing middle class.
Very good article and asks the question, “Will this lead to a hot war?”
The answer here I believe is an obvious yes. The problem with waging digital war is the same as a war of economic sanctions. It’s hard to win without escalation. If China were to get the upper hand on hacking and cause real economic damage to the USA there is no scenario where we don’t escalate to dropping bombs or troops on the ground. China would be in the exact same position.