We are at 59% close to the danger point.

We had high hopes that after the election we would be lowering the number. Alas it is not to be. Things have gotten worse, much worse. We are at a critical juncture. As we’ve explained we really believe that the chances of civil war can be broken down into five sections.

Read Story

Current Prediction

Where are we right now? What changes happened this week to raise or lower the prediction of a second civil war?

Read the current assessment here.

The algorithm

What are the criteria we use to determine the chance of another civil?

Learn More

Misconceptions of civil unrest

Many believe that another civil war is not possible. But their premise for this belief is historically misguided.

Learn More

What is the purpose of this site?

As a nation gets further from civil war or violence the population may believe that it is less likely, or less troubling if it does happen. Civil Wars in nations have become much more ubiquitous over the last few decades. They are incredibly damaging to the nation and cause widespread suffering and loss. By have a serious and sober discussion perhaps we can avoid the pain of a civil war.